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🇮🇳 India: "Mother of all deals" signed
India and the EU fast track a deal decades in the making.
Imran Khan
January 31, 2026
Analysing meaning and power through language.
Hi Signposter. Politics is likely the direct opposite of science. Whereas science is built on the work of rigour, repetition, and replication to push forward what is possible in the real world, politics is a reflection of the real world as it exists.
Even an inverted mirror is a mirror, after all.
With Trump 2.0 radically redrawing trade routes and relationships around the world, countries, particularly Western liberal democracies, are reframing their foreign policy from China + 1 (the hedging of manufacturing and commercial relationships with China + an additional manufacturing country to offset any U.S. driven tariffs or sanctions) to U.S. + 1. Regions are finding out that it is easier to trade with your frustrating neighbour than it is to trade with America. And political relationships that could not be forged even one year ago are now being reset. As of writing, the prime minister of the U.K., Keir Starmer, is in China for precisely that purpose, following Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney.
Earlier this week, India celebrated it’s 77th Republic Day with the presidents of the European Council and European Commission as chief guests. A day later, India and EU signed what they are calling the “mother of all deals”.
In this issue of Signpost, we’ll look at the speech given by India’s prime minister Narendra Modi at the signing of the deal, to understand just how much the world had to change to push through this deal impacting 2 billion lives.
THIS WEEK
🇮🇳 India - English Translation of Prime Minister’s Press Statement during the Joint Press Statement with President of the European Council and President of the European Commission
Here is the entire English translation text of Modi’s speech, verbatim from India’s Ministry of External Affairs website, with specific words and phrases highlighted for semiotic analysis below:
Your Excellencies,
President Antonio Costa and President Ursula von der Leyen,
Delegates from both countries,
Friends from the media,
Namaskar!
It gives me great pleasure to welcome my two close friends, President Costa and President von der Leyen, on this historic visit to India.
President Costa is widely admired for his simple way of life and deep commitment to society, earning him the affectionate title of the "Gandhi of Lisbon.” President Ursula von der Leyen is a source of inspiration worldwide - not only as Germany’s first woman Defence Minister, but also as the first woman President of the European Commission.
Yesterday marked a historic moment, as for the first time, leaders of the European Union participated in India’s Republic Day celebrations as Chief Guests. Today presents yet another historic occasion, as two of the world’s largest democratic powers come together to add a defining chapter to their relationship.
Friends,
In recent years, relations between India and the European Union have witnessed remarkable progress. Our partnership, based on shared democratic values, economic synergy, and strong people-to-people ties, is reaching new heights. Today, we have trade worth 180 billion euros. More than 800,000 Indians are living and actively contributing to the countries of the European Union.
We have established new dimensions of cooperation in every sector, from strategic technologies to clean energy, from digital governance to development partnerships. Building on these achievements, at today's summit, we have taken several decisions that will benefit all sections of society.
Friends,
Today, India has concluded the largest Free Trade Agreement in its history. It is a happy coincidence that on the 27th day of the month, India is entering into this FTA with the 27 Member States of the European Union. This historic agreement will facilitate easier access for our farmers and small enterprises to European markets, create new opportunities in manufacturing, and further strengthen cooperation across our services sectors.
Moreover, this FTA will boost investment between India and the European Union, foster new innovation partnerships, and strengthen supply chains at the global level. In other words, this is not merely a trade agreement; it is a new blueprint for shared prosperity.
Friends,
Alongside this ambitious FTA, we are also creating a new framework for mobility. This will open up new opportunities in the European Union for Indian students, workers, and professionals. We have a long-standing and extensive cooperation in science and technology. Today, we have decided to further strengthen these important linkages.
Friends,
Defence and security are a foundation for any strong partnership. Today, we are making this official through a Security and Defence Partnership. This will help us work more closely on counter-terrorism, maritime security, and cybersecurity.
This will also strengthen our shared commitment to a rules-based international order. Our cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region will grow, and our defence companies will gain new opportunities to work together on co-development and co-production.
Friends,
Based on today's achievements, we are launching an even more ambitious and holistic strategic agenda for the next five years. In a complex global environment, this agenda will provide clear direction, advance our shared prosperity, accelerate innovation, strengthen security cooperation, and deepen people-to-people ties.
Friends,
Cooperation between India and the European Union constitutes a "Partnership for the Global Good.” We will expand trilateral projects from the Indo-Pacific to the Caribbean, thereby providing tangible support for sustainable agriculture, clean energy, and women’s empowerment. Together, we will work to establish the IMEC Corridor as a key pillar of global trade and sustainable development.
Friends,
Today, the global order is undergoing profound turbulence. In this context, the partnership between India and the European Union will strengthen stability within the international system. Against this backdrop, we held detailed discussions today on several global issues, including Ukraine, West Asia, and the Indo-Pacific. Respect for multilateralism and international norms remains a shared priority. We are united in our view that reform of global institutions is essential to address the challenges of our time.
Friends,
In the course of relations among nations, there are moments when history itself declares that this is where the direction changed, that this is where a new era began. Today’s historic Summit between India and the European Union represents such a moment.
I once again extend my heartfelt appreciation to President Costa and President von der Leyen for this extraordinary journey, for your friendship toward India, and for your commitment to our shared future.
New Delhi
January 27, 2026
CONTEXT
1️⃣ What is happening?
The return of U.S. president Donald Trump to The White House a year ago changed, perhaps permanently, relationships between international capital cities and their people. On 2nd April 2025, Trump announced sweeping tariffs on the world, branding it a ‘Liberation Day’ for Americans. India was hit with 50% tariffs, an unexpectedly high rate for a country that was, for all intents and purposes, building closer ties with the U.S. over the last two decades. Blindsided, India began negotiating with the U.S. for more favourable tariffs, but instead were accused by the Americans of profiting off of cheap Russian oil and funding the war in Ukraine.
Additionally, India bore the brunt of an increased $100,000 fee for the H1-B visa, an American foreigner-for-hire visa that is overwhelmingly issued to Indian workers. It felt like a deliberate move from the U.S. government to pressure India. India also flew back Indian asylum seekers caught at the U.S. border.
Meanwhile, Europe was hit with a cavalcade of crises. Apart from their own set of tariffs, Trump has in recent months been obsessed with claiming Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, on top of an aggressive push from the Americans to have all NATO members up their military spend and ‘pay for’ the war in Ukraine.
With the U.S. putting out obvious signs that it was no longer business-as-usual, India and the EU dusted off a long gestating free trade agreement (official talks began back in 2007), signing on the dotted line mere months after talks accelerated in 2025. This came on the heels of another long gestating agreement the EU signed with Mercosur (South America) after beginning talks as far back as 1999.
2️⃣ What was written, and to whom?
Modi’s speech celebrating the signing of the deal was for the benefit of three audiences. One, Indian citizens. This agreement should not only benefit Indian businesses and workers, it also manoeuvres Modi as a capable and competent international deal maker in the eyes of voters.
Two, for the citizens of the EU. Modi’s speech was a rallying cry to European powers to depend on India for commerce, talent, and investment.
Three, for the prime resident of The White House and his numerous advisors. The message was very clear: there are others ready to do business with India.
ANALYSING THE TEXT
Words / Phrases | What it Says | What it Means |
|---|---|---|
my two close friends | not simply political colleagues | friends of circumstance |
"Gandhi of Lisbon.” | President Costa is a person of great affection and simplicity | this is likely the highest non-official title an Indian PM can bestow upon you |
source of inspiration worldwide | President von der Leyen inspires everyone around the world | she is not a source of unpredictability like other presidents who shall remain nameless |
for the first time | historic | with no other choice available to us |
two of the world’s largest democratic powers / based on shared democratic values | two large democratic regions are banding together | the EU and India are more similar than different |
Today, India has concluded the largest Free Trade Agreement in its history. | India has signed an historic agreement amidst a shifting political and economic landscape | India can still grow even when hit by crippling tariffs by the world’s largest economy |
shared prosperity / "Partnership for the Global Good.” / your friendship toward India | everyone wins | not only America |
Security and Defence Partnership | India and EU are also collaborating on defence | this is a true deepening of ties, not just economics |
a rules-based international order | a predictable global market | the world is currently not operating on a previously agreed upon rules-based order |
Today, the global order is undergoing profound turbulence | the world is changing | the Americans have upended the system they designed |
will strengthen stability within the international system | India and EU will stabilise the international market | India and EU need to work together for their own survival |
Respect for multilateralism | India and EU still remain independent nations | India is hedging by signing FTAs with as many different nations and regions as are open to |
reform of global institutions is essential | refining the existing institutions that support global commerce and governance is important | perhaps new global institutions built outside the American sphere of influence is worth exploring |
DECONSTRUCTING THE TEXT
🗝️ Unlocking Meaning
In the days prior to the signing of the agreement, both India and the EU referred to this deal as the “mother of all deals”, and it’s easy to see why. The deal impacts over 2 billion people and is signed by the world’s second and fourth largest economies. Together, the two markets make up roughly a quarter of global GDP. While the wording was not used in Modi’s speech, it was used in European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s speech. It is, by all measures, a big deal.
Modi’s speech is unique for two reasons. One, it is surprisingly light on historical context. Which likely reflects the reality that there hasn’t been much historically significant economic and political activity between the EU and India. Indeed, this deal could be the first meaningful engagement between the two parties in modern history. Considering how many times Modi mentioned democracy as the common thread between the two, it’s clear that there was not much else he could reference.
Second, Modi spoke repeatedly about protecting and growing ‘a rules-based international order’, which is in stark contrast to everything coming out of the world’s largest economy. He also spoke about a "Partnership for the Global Good”, referencing, again (at least in speech) a globally holistic vision for growth that benefits all, not just some, and definitely not just one.
Some of these messages are clearly directed at he-who-was-not-in-the-room.
👑 Power Play
The truth remains that both India and the EU had no choice but to extradite this agreement because of pressure from U.S. tariffs. Diversifying their portfolio has become critical to the growth of both India and the EU. India has traditionally been an insular market, protecting India’s growing middle class from foreign companies. Now, this deal is the ninth free trade agreement India has signed in the last four years. The EU, similarly, has signed recent agreements with Japan, Mercosur (South America), and Vietnam.
During Trump 1.0, Modi and Trump visited each others countries to large fanfare and pageantry. None of that bonhomie seems to have extended into Trump 2.0. Trump’s unpredictability, or rather his predictability to go after neighbours, allies, and friendly nations means that we are witnessing one of the fastest global realignments of economic, security, and political relationships between friends and foes.
India, specifically, is caught in a bind. The U.S. is the largest single market export destination for Indian goods. China, on the other hand, is India’s largest single market import destination. India’s relationship with both nations are limited to say the least. The EU, as a region, provides India a large, rich, and friendly alternative for both imports and exports. The question now is whether India resets it’s relationships with China, along with other neighbours (India’s relationships with both Bangladesh and Pakistan continue to deteriorate fast) to offset their failing relationship with Trump the United States.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
Tell me your reasoning. In next week’s issue, I’ll highlight the most thought-provoking responses.
LAST WEEK’S RESPONSES
This comment was in response to last week’s Signpost on Senegal’s win at AFCON 2025. I suppose the question here is who controls the money, CAF or FIFA?
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