🛢️Gulf: Mr. Trump Goes to Arabia

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💰You know what’s cooler than a billion dollars? A trillion dollars.

When it comes to oil rich states and the Trump presidency, even a billion dollars doesn’t seem to be enough. Estimates are putting the combined value of all deals signed between the Americans and the Saudis, Qataris, and the Emiratis during Trump’s recently concluded first official state visit of his second presidency at over 10 trillion dollars. The media could have reported the deals to be worth a bazillion gajillion dollars and I would be equally lost.

Let’s not forget that during his first presidential term, Trump endorsed the Abraham Accords which normalised relations between Israel and the UAE. Clearly, Trump is a leader who the oil rich Gulf states are close to.

So why is the first state visit by President Trump to Saudi Arabia (again), Qatar, and the UAE? These are all very rich, very oil-dependent states. These are also some of the world’s largest military spenders (Qatar famously hosts the largest U.S. military base in the region). Most importantly, they are all aggressively ambitious, muscling their way onto the international political landscape and rearranging the global power structure in their favour. And they have the deep pockets to do so.

For this issue of Signpost, we go looking for answers. We’ll analyse two opinion pieces on Trump’s recent trip, one written before he left (by Saudi newspaper Arab News’ editor-in-chief for Semafor), and one written after he wrapped up (by Rest of World’s Middle East and Africa editor).

🚦SEMAFOR: Analysis: High hopes for Trump’s Middle East trip [link]

📢 What Semafor is saying
The three year-old, ex-Buzzfeed/NYT/Bloomberg founded news media published this opinion piece on Trump’s Gulf trip before he left. The opinion piece is written by the editor-in-chief of the biggest English language newspaper in the region, Arab News. The article is written to provide a regional journalistic perspective to American audiences. That perspective is that Gulf countries have been steady partners to the U.S., and are being rewarded accordingly, which also benefits the U.S.

1. 📸 Visuals

There is only one visual in the article, a headshot of Trump. We see him looking off to the left of the picture, in a blue suit, white shirt, and blue tie. His expression is one of being fed up. He seems very annoyed about something, and is clearly judging the person he is looking at.

2. ✍🏽 Words

The headline speaks directly to the heart of the issue — ‘high hopes’ are in play for the trip. The article then starts off by saying that Trump’s visit is ‘a bold signal’ about his ‘foreign policy priorities’. Whereas ‘previous administrations favoured Europe or North America’, Trump is focusing on the Gulf, ‘doubling down’ in a region where ‘his legacy’ is tied closely to the ‘security, diplomacy, and economic ambitions’ of the three Gulf states.

The article does acknowledge that some may call this trip a ‘transactional move’, saying that the U.S. president is ‘chasing deals with whoever pays the most’, something that the writer says is ‘short-sighted and unfair’ to all countries involved. The writer argues that this is more than about ‘Gulf states having cash to burn’, instead it’s a focus of ‘Trump’s “America First” philosophy’, meaning that the U.S. is ‘open for business’ with all ‘friends and allies’, before underlining that ‘few [friends and allies] have been as consistent or committed as the Gulf countries’.

According to the article, American ‘politics and bureaucracy’ have ‘allowed rivals to step in on lucrative contracts’ in Saudi Arabia, despite American companies having ‘long been the partner of choice’. This trip indicates that the Americans are looking to correct that imbalance. We also get a quick aside about Israel, a country that is not part of this visit, which the writer says is reflective of the ‘right wing government’ in Israel ‘making it a diplomatic liability’ to everyone, including ‘Arab countries that signed normalization deals in good faith’. This, despite America’s ‘commitment to Israel’s security’ being ‘ironclad’.

The writer than mentions that Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 programme is at a ‘critical juncture’, and needs ‘strong international partnerships’ to sustain it’s momentum and progress. There is mention of a potential ‘nuclear cooperation deal’ between the U.S. and the Saudis, which the writer classifies as a sign that Trump ‘doesn’t wish to repeat mistakes of the past’ and wants to instead ‘replicate the 90-year success story of Aramco’.

Here the writer also mentions the growing diplomatic importance of Saudi Arabia, saying that any peace deal regarding Gaza or Iran would be ‘far better served if Riyadh gives it the seal of approval’, something which the writer claims Trump understands. To this, the writer adds Saudi’s ‘mediating talks’ in the Russia-Ukraine war, the civil war in Sudan, or the recent military strikes between India and Pakistan.

The final two paragraphs briefly touch upon the importance of both Qatar and the UAE. The UAE comes in for strong praise, ‘a role model for soft power’, where it balances ‘diplomacy, economic innovation, and military strategy’. Qatar is complimented more sparingly, saying that Trump is ‘being pragmatic about its [Qatar’s] role in Syria, Gaza, Afghanistan, and elsewhere’, before reminding readers that Qatar has massive gas exports and ‘is home to the biggest US military base in the region’.

❓ What it means
Understandably, the writer is positive on the visit from Trump. And perhaps there is much to agree with in the article. It’s true that all three Arab states have been reimagining their roles in the global political and economic landscape, placing big bets on diplomacy, technology, and culture. Since the last time Trump was president, Qatar has hosted a FIFA World Cup, and Saudi Arabia is hosting one soon after the next one in North America. Saudi Arabia has also made huge pushes into sports and arts and culture, positioning itself as more than just the economic and political power in the region.

In many ways, this is the region’s moment in the baking desert sun. Under Trump, the region has enjoyed an unusually close relationship with the U.S., and while last time Israel was one of the first countries that Trump had visited, that doesn’t seem to be the case this time round. Clearly there are cards here that the Arab Gulf countries hold that they didn’t before. Part of it is their burgeoning relationship with China, a very non-critical and politically non-intrusive partner. Part of it is also reflective of the standing of the U.S. in the current political and economic climate.

⚠️ Why it matters
American presidents, along with some European leaders, have had a habit of lecturing the rest of the world on how they should live. And while there is merit to many issues like human rights and democracy, the very limited lens through which these edicts are made are what a lot of people in the region have been historically upset about. It hasn’t helped that there has been a permanent military conflict in the region for the last century that has heavy involvement from both American and European military industrial complexes. It’s an odd case of selling Gulf states the weapons that facilitate the conflicts that they are criticised for.

In 2025, with the U.S. reshaping its place in the world, China increasingly being viewed as a more stable partner (China is now the largest trading partner with more countries in the world than the U.S.), and the Arab Gulf states themselves looking to play a more active role in regional and global politics, alongside Turkey, Iran, and Israel, the days of the single global superpower may very well be numbered.

🌍 REST OF WORLD: How Trump turned the Gulf’s oil kingdoms into silicon superpowers in his four-day trip [link]

📢 What Rest of World is saying
Rest of World was founded by Sophie Schmidt, daughter of ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt, to report on news from outside the U.S., i.e. the rest of the world. It’s name belies it’s U.S.-centric focus, however they do have writers in different parts of the world reporting on local and internationally relevant stories. This article, written by the Middle East and Africa editor based in Abu Dhabi, focuses solely on the AI and chip agreements that were signed during the trip.

1. 📸 Visuals

Once again, there is only image in the article, but it is a busy one. The header image shows Trump and UAE president Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan in a large room surrounded by a crowd of people. In the foreground are what look like the tops of heads and arms of children dressed in silvery white sleeves waving American and UAE flags above their heads. One of the girls even has some gold jewellery in her hair. In front of the kids are the two leaders, walking side by side, Trump in a blue suit and tie with a white shirt, mid applause and smiling, while next to him is Mohamed bin Zayed in a traditional dark thawb (the garment worn closest to the skin) covered by a white bisht (the outer garment) with a white keffiyeh (the head dress) and black agal (the black cord around his head). He is also smiling and enjoying himself.

Behind them are men dressed in full military uniform, alongside at least one more man in a grey thawb, but it is clearly a busy, full room. The room itself has ornate marble and patterns on the wall, alongside some gold and wooden elements. It is an opulent looking room.

2. ✍🏽 Words

The headline immediately draws your attention to the unexpected focus of the story — ‘silicon superpowers’. This is further elaborated by the subheading where the writer mentions that ‘trillions of dollars’ have been pledged by the Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE in return for ‘cutting-edge chips for AI development’.

Following a quick summary of the article, the article proper starts with reiterating the the ‘four-day blitz’ that Trump had in the region, which helped ‘position the Gulf as the U.S.’ key tech ally’. The article repeats a claim that Trump made in March, saying that the countries in the region ‘needed to “pay $1 trillion to American companies” over four years to secure his visit’. Indeed, according to the article, the UAE has ‘pledged $1.4 trillion over the next decade, Saudi Arabia committed $600 billion over four years, and Qatar added $200 billion’, which include investments in ‘AI infrastructure, semiconductors, defense, and energy projects’.

The article reminds us that Trump was also joined on the trip by ‘Elon Musk, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’ amongst others, saying that the trip ‘could create new AI superpowers while channelling Gulf oil wealth into U.S. companies’. A few key deals are included here, including between American chip giant Nvidia and Saudi-backed AI startup Humain, along with further deals with American tech giants AMD, Qualcomm, Cisco, IBM, Alphabet, Oracle, and Salesforce.

The article claims that in the UAE, Trump found ‘the trip’s crown jewel’, which included a deal to allow the Emiratis to ‘import as many as 500,000 of Nvidia’s most advanced AI chips’ for the next two years, which will go towards both ‘G42, the UAE’s AI powerhouse’, and other data centres being built by American tech companies in the country. Another key agreement was for rare earth mining in Saudi Arabia, to help reduce ‘U.S. dependence on Chinese suppliers’.

All of this, the article iterates, is happening now because ‘Trump reversed’ previous U.S. president Joe Biden’s ‘AI diffusion rule’, which ‘blocked Gulf nations from accessing the most advanced U.S. chips’. Why has he done so? The article says it’s to ‘pull them [Gulf nations] away from China’, where companies like Huawei and Alibaba have made significant inroads.

The article ends by saying that all of these Gulf investments are ultimately in place to wean their economies off oil, with the UAE aiming to become a ‘global AI leader by 2031’. Finally, the article offers a recap of defence deals signed, Trump’s announcement of the lifting of sanctions from Syria, and his discussing ‘renaming the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Gulf’.

❓ What it means
While the last bit of the article makes it seem like Trump like to rename bodies of water (first Gulf of America, now this?) the focus is solely on the huge investment commitments into AI. This is significant because it feels like the three countries want to replicate the oil-rush-wealth into AI-rush-wealth.

There was a time when the biggest deals that Arab Gulf countries would sign with the U.S. was on buying defence capabilities. Now they’re buying chips. Significantly, the major deals struck with Nvidia reiterate the undeniable lead the company has on chips in AI over every other company, and country, in the world. Looks like the Gulf countries are ready to buy the latest technologies to diversify their economies, and are unperturbed by the price.

It’s hard to not look at this and consider it as a massive rebranding exercise for the region as well. The Gulf has always been in the news either for conflict, oil prices, or ostentatious displays of wealth. Every country seems to be building a bigger/longer/taller thing of some kind. AI as an industry is arguably still in its earliest stages, so these countries can finally make a good run at dominating (or at least competing) in an industry that they help to build as well.

⚠️ Why it matters
Political scientists have often called the oil rich Arab Gulf states as ‘rentier states’, where a state receives most of its income not from taxes or businesses, but rather by selling a natural resource, in this case oil. Since most of the income for the country is generated from outside the country, the country does not rely on its own people for income. Outside of other challenges that rentier states face (weaker institutions, lower levels of civic engagement), the main challenge that all these oil rich countries face is that of productivity.

In an interconnected world, trade dominates everything. As the U.S. is turning inwards, the world’s biggest customer is now missing and all trade-dependent nations are scrambling to turbocharge their domestic productivity to counteract these moves. AI investment could help play an outsized role in this as the oil dries up (at least, I think so. I’m not very familiar with how the tech works and who exactly is making money from this or how, because right now it simply sounds like everybody is throwing money at AI and nobody is reaping any meaningful financial benefits).

WHAT’S GOING ON? 

🤖 AI and defence and energy, oh my!

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE all have a rather large community of economic migrants — people from poorer countries who come to make a better life. And those economic migrants who do not have a path to permanence in these societies make up the majority of society, at least in the UAE and Qatar. I’d argue that Saudi Arabia is able to build its mega cities not simply on the backs of its own citizens. This has led to an interesting dynamic where the three countries not only work together, but also compete with each other, perhaps more so now than they ever have in the past.

The two articles have a very different focus. One was a prediction of what might happen, the other was a recap. The distance in focus between the two articles underlines just how much the world has changed, and the players who are changing it. The focus, prior to Trump’s trip, was on regional geopolitics and defence, and yet the biggest deals post-trip are in technology and AI. While the opinion piece in Semafor was focused solely on Trump, the article in Rest of World projected the importance of the Gulf states instead.

Why were the two article so different?

Is it because most of us underestimate just how ambitious the Gulf states are? Is it that the Gulf states have the money to spend on the shiniest new thing? Or is it mostly a political and PR exercise to keep the citizens of all four countries happy?

The truth, as always, is somewhere in between.
Read widely. Question thoroughly. Decide accordingly.

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Was this forwarded to you? Signpost is a free weekly newsletter analysing what the media says, what it means, and why it matters. It’s free to subscribe. Alternatively, you can add me on LinkedIn.