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🇧🇩 Bangladesh: Elections done, politicking begins
India, Pakistan, and China all send messages to the new Bangladeshi PM Tarique Rahman.
Imran Khan
February 14, 2026
Analysing meaning and power through language.
Hi Signposter. This will be the third consecutive Signpost issue that focuses on news coming out of South Asia. Two weeks ago we looked at the India-EU “mother of all deals”, and last week we analysed the language used by Pakistan to boycott their cricket match on Sunday against India in the ongoing ICC Men’s T20 World Cup (update: the game’s back on, and it has a part to play later in today’s issue).
This week, Bangladesh completed it’s first free-and-fair elections since the 2024 Gen Z protests that led to the resignation and flight of ex-prime minister Sheikh Hasina. Hasina escaped to Delhi, where she is currently still based, while her party, the Awami League, was banned from contesting these elections.
With results trickling in, it is clear that the Awami League’s biggest competitor, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has secured a two-thirds majority in parliament. The return of the self-exiled Tarique Rahman to the highest office in the land is worth exploring separately, but in today’s Signpost, we will instead look at the congratulatory messages India, Pakistan, and China have issued publicly to Bangladesh, and what that means for the region.
CONTEXT
1️⃣ What is happening?
Bangladesh held their first elections this week since their Gen Z-led protests of 2024 against ex-prime minister Sheikh Hasina. Hasina, the daughter of Bangladesh’s founding president, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, was the country’s longest serving prime minister, and one of the longest serving female elected leaders in the world. Her father was also the co-founder of the Awami League, one of the two dominant parties in Bangladesh politics. She has led the party since 1981.
Hasina served as prime minister from 2009 onwards for 15 uninterrupted years. Under her premiership, Bangladesh enjoyed a close political, economic, and security relationship with India. An example of this was the 2015 Land Boundary Agreement which exchanged hundreds of enclaves between India and Bangladesh to simplify their land border. And while Bangladesh experienced economic growth during Hasina’s tenure, critics accused her of an autocratic rule with democratic backsliding of political culture, invariably benefitting India.
In 2024, after her ousting to India, Bangladesh’s interim government requested India to extradite her to face charges of crimes against humanity after her brutal crackdown on student protesters. India refused the request, and she was subsequently sentenced, in absentia, to death. Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus, banned her party the Awami League from political participation.
This week, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the other dominant political party in the country, swept to power with a two-thirds majority in parliament, after being in the wilderness for the last two decades. This brings Tarique Rahman, currently self-exiled in London for the last 17 years, to the forefront of Bangladeshi politics. Rahman, like Hasina, is also political royalty. His mother, Khaleda Zia, was a three-time prime minister of Bangladesh, while his father, Ziaur Rahman, was president, and also deeply involved in the independence movement of Bangladesh.
All these changes come at the lowest ebb of Bangladesh-India relations. Historically, India supported secessionist movements in Bangladesh leading up to the separation of Bangladesh (or East Pakistan, as it was called) from Pakistan (or West Pakistan, as it was called) in 1971. While the Awami League under Hasina was India-leaning, the BNP has traditionally preferred closer ties with Pakistan, India’s rival in the region.
2️⃣ What was written, and to whom?
The messages from all three nations were written to appeal to the new leadership and people of Bangladesh. Bangladesh’s maritime coast into the Bay of Bengal hugs India’s Eastern states and maritime border. This is critical real estate for India, while also of exceeding interest to China and Pakistan as they jostle for influence in the region and beyond.
THIS WEEK
🇧🇩 Bangladesh - Congratulatory messages from the leaders of India, Pakistan, and China to Tarique Rahman, incoming prime minister of Bangladesh
Here is the entire text of the message from India’s prime minister Narendra Modi, verbatim from his official X account, with specific words and phrases highlighted for semiotic analysis:
I convey my warm congratulations to Mr. Tarique Rahman on leading BNP to a decisive victory in the Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh.
This victory shows the trust of the people of Bangladesh in your leadership.
India will continue to stand in support of a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh.
I look forward to working with you to strengthen our multifaceted relations and advance our common development goals.
Next is the entire text of the message from Pakistan’s prime minister Shehbaz Sharif, verbatim from his official X account, with specific words and phrases highlighted for semiotic analysis:
I extend my warmest felicitations to Mr. Tarique Rahman on leading the BNP to a resounding victory in the Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh. I also congratulate the people of Bangladesh on the successful conduct of the elections.
I look forward to working closely with the new Bangladesh leadership to further strengthen our historic, brotherly multifaceted bilateral relations and advance our shared goals of peace, stability, and development in South Asia and beyond.
Finally, here’s the entire text of the message from China’s Embassy in Bangladesh, verbatim from their official Facebook account, with specific words and phrases highlighted for semiotic analysis:
Congratulations to the people of Bangladesh on the smooth and successful 13th National Parliamentary Election and to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party for taking the lead in the election. We look forward to working together with the new government of Bangladesh and writing new chapters of China-Bangladesh relations.
ANALYSING THE TEXT
Words / Phrases | What it Says | What it Means |
|---|---|---|
🇮🇳 I convey my warm congratulations | as prime minister of India | from one leader to another |
🇮🇳 leading BNP to a decisive victory | for leading your party to victory | against the largest Muslim party in the country, the Jamaat-e-Islaami, and our previous partners, the now banned Awami League |
🇮🇳 the trust of the people of Bangladesh in your leadership | the people of your country have put their trust in you | and I am pragmatic enough to recognise that trust |
🇮🇳 India will continue to stand in support of a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh. | India will stand in support of our neighbour | India will continue to support Bangladesh just like we always have even under your previous leader |
🇮🇳 I look forward to working with you to strengthen our multifaceted relations | I look forward to a successful partnership | India is still home to your ousted previous prime minister but let’s look forward |
🇵🇰 I extend my warmest felicitations | as prime minister of Pakistan | my wishes are warmer than India’s |
🇵🇰 leading the BNP to a resounding victory | for leading your party to victory | for claiming undisputed power in the country |
🇵🇰 I also congratulate the people of Bangladesh | the people of Bangladesh deserve congratulations after months of political wrangling | I have specifically called out the people of Bangladesh to build a closer relationship with the nation |
🇵🇰 I look forward to working closely with the new Bangladesh leadership | I look forward to a successful partnership | Pakistan now has an opportunity to get closer to Bangladesh at India’s expense |
🇵🇰 our historic, brotherly multifaceted bilateral relations | our comprehensive and historical relationship | we want to leverage our history when we were one nation, but we don’t want to rehash our violent separation |
🇨🇳 Congratulations to the people of Bangladesh | China congratulates the people of Bangladesh | not a specific person or leader |
🇨🇳 Bangladesh Nationalist Party for taking the lead in the election | well done on surging ahead in the polls | we want to make sure that we maintain a relationship with all parties in case somebody else comes to power tomorrow |
🇨🇳 We look forward to working together with the new government of Bangladesh | we look forward to a successful partnership | with whomever is in the government |
DECONSTRUCTING THE TEXT
🗝️ Unlocking Meaning & Power
I added flags next to the statements so that you could differentiate between the ones from India prime minister Narendra Modi and Pakistan prime minister Shehbaz Sharif. It is remarkable how similar both statements are, down to the choice of words, structure, and tone. The message out of China, however, is short and a supreme example of hedging.
Modi’s message is future oriented. He knows that what India needs right now is a reset of relations with Bangladesh. Apart from India housing the condemned leader of the banned Awami League, Hindu nationalist rhetoric from India against anti-Hindu violence in Bangladesh, amongst other issues, has led to a deepening of religious intolerance between the two countries in the last two years. India, while constitutionally a secular nation, has had a Hindu nationalist political party in power for the last decade. Bangladesh, by contrast, was carved out of the Indian colonial empire to be a home for Muslims in the East (with Pakistan becoming a home for Muslims in the West).
Historic religious divides aside, both countries are aware that they are tightly connected. Bangladesh shares 90% of its land border with India, while India’s state of West Bengal sits alongside Bangladesh, a Hindu-majority community to Bangladesh’s Muslim majority nation with a shared Bengali ethnicity, heritage, and language.
Pakistan, meanwhile, understands that this is the best time for them to reassert their historical religious identity and influence over Bangladesh. This already began earlier this year when Pakistan refused to play against India in the ongoing ICC Men’s T20 World Cup hosted in India and Sri Lanka, after Bangladesh refused to travel to India for their matches sighting security risks. While Bangladesh were summarily removed from the tournament, Pakistan supported Bangladesh’s concerns, and made efforts to “get Bangladesh some respect”. This infers that India disrespected Bangladesh and dismissed their concerns.
China, meanwhile, the major Asian and global power of the 21st century, is keen to counter balance India’s influence in the region and beyond. China already has a deepening economic and military relationship with Pakistan, and continues to build inroads with Afghanistan’s new Taliban government. Bangladesh, with a long maritime border into the Indian Ocean, is another key geographic area that China would like to control. It also helps that Bangladesh sits on the India’s Eastern border, just like Pakistan does on India’s North Western border. China already has access to a port in Sri Lanka, at India’s Southern maritime border.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
Tell me your reasoning. In next week’s issue, I’ll highlight the most thought-provoking responses.
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