🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: "Disappointment over Pressure Exerted by UAE"

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia - Saudi Arabia Expresses Disappointment over Pressure Exerted by UAE on Southern Transitional Council Forces to Conduct Military Operations on Its Southern Borders in Hadramout and Al-Mahara Governorates, Considering It a Threat to National Security

Here is the entire text of the statement, verbatim from Saudi Press Agency, the official news agency of Saudi Arabia, with specific words and phrases highlighted for semiotic analysis below:

1️⃣ What is happening?

Yemen has been in a civil war since 2014, when the Houthis, an Islamist military organisation, took over the capital of Yemen and overthrew the sitting Yemeni president Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. The Houthis then continued to expand their territory towards the south. In 2015, Saudi Arabia entered the conflict with a coalition of other Arab Gulf and African states against the Houthis, intending to reinstate the overthrown government.

I am glossing over a lot of intricate Yemeni and regional history here, but for the sake of simplifying things, this conflict is considered to be part of the existing and ongoing Iran-Saudi Arabia proxy war. Why are Iran and Saudi Arabia fighting a proxy war? Religion and wealth mostly.

Saudi Arabia is the largest oil supplier in the world, arguably the most important country in Sunni Islam, and also maintains an old and deep friendship with the United States. Iran has almost as many oil reserves as Saudi Arabia, but is a much smaller global oil supplier because of heavy U.S. sanctions that prevent it from doing business with the global market. It is also the most important country in Shia Islam.

Saudi Arabia and Iran have jostled over influence within the region for decades, and the civil war in Yemen is another theatre for that conflict to play out (this, despite no official involvement from Iran in the conflict). So while Iran are widely considered to back the Houthis, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have backed separate forces in the country as an anti-Houthi front to limit Iranian influence. This is particularly critical for Saudi Arabia because Yemen sits at their southern border.

Fair enough, you might say. Two oil rich Arab Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) are aligning political and military interests and efforts to protect their own backyard. And for the longest time this was generally the case. The two countries also share a long border, and for decades have worked closely together, often on the same side of emerging conflicts in the region (case in point: Saudi Arabia led a blockade against neighbour Qatar with the support of the UAE from 2017 to 2021).

However, since the pandemic, a few things have happened.

1. the UAE has normalised relations with Israel. A few other Muslim Arab nations have as well, but none are as high profile and globally relevant as the UAE.

2. Saudi Arabia has opened up the economy in a dramatic and aggressive way, redirecting their immense oil wealth to prop up futuristic new cities, initiating massive investments in global sports, and bringing more tourists to the country. In short, Saudi Arabia is positioning itself as a viable alternative (with deeper pockets) to the UAE for business and lifestyle in the region.

3. The UAE has, in turn, begun to explore a foreign policy independent of Saudi Arabia. While in the past both countries operated in lockstep with regards to how they appeared on the global stage, the last five years have redrawn the relationship from benign neighbours to ambitious competitors.

In Yemen (and in Sudan), Saudi Arabia and the UAE have backed competing military forces on the ground. In the Sudanese Civil War, the Saudis back the incumbent Sudanese Government Forces, while the UAE back the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (this is another complex issue so I’ll leave this as is for now). In Yemen, the Saudis once again back the internationally recognised Yemeni government, while the UAE back the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC), who demand a separate southern state along the borders of the former South Yemen (until 1990, Yemen used to be two countries).

If you’re wondering why Saudi Arabia and the UAE have gotten themselves involved in internal conflicts further away from their own borders, let’s have a look at the map of the area.

All these conflict-prone nations buttress the critical Suez Canal and Red Sea passage, leading through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait into the Gulf of Aden. It is an easily controlled yet decisive node for the global oil supply chain (remember this?), directly impacting the wealth and lifestyle of most of the known world.

Coming back to the Saudi statement from 30th December, Saudi Arabia accused the UAE of shipping weapons to the STC, leading to a Saudi airstrike against the UAE shipment.

2️⃣ What was written, and to whom?

It is unimaginable to consider that Saudi Arabia would openly issue such a statement against a fellow oil rich Muslim Arab Gulf state, that too the UAE. The statement accuses a friendly nation state of causing a national security risk for Saudi Arabia. In many ways, while the statement was meant for the UAE, it was also for the wider world, to bring focus to what the Saudis consider to be a key issue to their sovereignty and place in the region.

DECONSTRUCTING THE TEXT

🗝️ Unlocking Meaning

Despite referring to the UAE as ‘brotherly’ multiple times, the directive of the message is clear: do what we say, not what we do. Saudi Arabia has historically always been the richest, largest, and most important country in the region. In the last 30 years, both the UAE and Qatar have gained tremendous wealth and have parlayed that wealth into global attention, influence, and now military and political reach. All three countries were the first international trips that U.S. president Donald Trump took in his second term in office. The political importance of the three countries in the region, and globally, cannot be overstated.

Saudi Arabia is very clear in their message that they remain the keystone power in the region. The UAE entered the conflict in Yemen because of Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia is now telling them, in no uncertain terms, that it is time for them to leave.

Just like how the UAE joined Saudi Arabia in the blockade of Qatar, will the UAE listen this time as well?

👑 Power Play

Undoubtedly yes. Since this message landed in the media, the UAE responded with their own press release referring to ‘inaccuracies’ about the intentions of the UAE in the Saudi statement. A little over an hour after that, the Ministry of Defence of the UAE issued their own statement, confirming their complete exit from Yemen. And while this looks like the UAE is reaffirming Saudi Arabia’s power in the region, the UAE had already removed all boots on the ground in Yemen. This further comprehensive exit from the conflict is, in a way, a welcome exit strategy for them.

Still, Emirati ambitions continue in Sudan. The Emirates also have military bases in Yemen, Eritrea, and Somalia (specifically in Somaliland, which Israel, the friend of the UAE, recently recognised as an independent state). So while the status quo has been reinstated, and Saudi Arabia has reemerged as the undisputed great power of the region, the growing ambitions of the UAE and Qatar could lead to more such public chastising amongst the three richest countries in the Gulf.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Tell me your reasoning. In next week’s issue, I’ll highlight the most thought-provoking responses.

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